by Roberta Ruggeri and Francesca Gambin
AIPO Economic Office
In the first months of 2025, the price of extra virgin olive oil in Italy showed a annual increase of +3,27%. Although this is a non-negligible variation, it is contained compared to the increases recorded by other food products and is placed within a European macroeconomic context still characterised by significant territorial heterogeneity.
Food inflation in the euro area
In the first quarter of 2025, food inflation in Eurozone member countries showed a differentiated path, reflecting national specificities in terms of agricultural policies, supply and domestic consumption.
In France, the consumer price index for food products recorded a +1,2% in April, among the lowest in the entire Union. The moderation is partly attributable to the strategy of containing margins in large-scale distribution, as well as to the strengthening of local supply chains supported by the National Food Sovereignty Plan.
In Spain, in March, the food inflation rate stood at +2,4%: a slowdown in trend compared to 2024, but accompanied by a drop in domestic demand for olive oil, due to the still high prices following the production crisis of the previous two years.
In Italy, in April, thefood inflation reached +3,2%.
La Germany marked a +3,42% in March, with particular pressure on imported products, including vegetable oils.
Portugal e Greece show the highest levels among the countries considered: respectively +3,5% and +4,1% in the month of March, the latter with inflation dynamics still conditioned by the volatility of agricultural markets and a strong dependence on the importation of foodstuffs.
The weighted average of food inflation in the eurozone countries in the first quarter it is around +2,5% per year, a value which, moreover, hides significant divergences between the central and peripheral economies of the area, both in terms of cost pressure and demand reaction.
Dynamics of extra virgin olive oil prices
The increase of +3,27% in the price of extra virgin olive oil in Italy is therefore in line with the national inflation rate and marginally higher than the average of the Eurozone. This data, however, takes on a more significant value if compared with other items in the food basket: for example, fresh vegetables recorded a +8,6%, while baked goods, in some countries, exceeded +10%.
In the context of the so-called “shopping cart”, extra virgin olive oil continues to represent a primary good, whose contribution to overall inflation is marginal.
