A market increasingly affected by climate change and trade tensions, but with good signs for Italian-made EVO oil, provided that the production deficit is addressed and positioning is continued. This is the summary of the conference dedicated to "Market Challenges for Olive Oil in a Changing World", the focus that took place today at Veronafiere on the second day of SOL Expo, which saw, among others, the Deputy Director of the International Olive Council (IOC), Abderraouf Laajimi, Undersecretary of State for Agriculture, Patrizio La Pietra, and Director of the North American Olive Oil Association, Joe Profaci.
“It is a very complex moment for our sector - declared the Director of the North American Olive Oil Association, Joe Profaci -The US Administration believes tariffs are an important part of the economy, so they're here to stay. As an Association, we're doing our best to convince the government that an exemption is needed for a healthy product like olive oil, whose domestic production isn't enough to meet consumption. In the meantime, we need to understand what the impact will be on olive oil. In 2024, we saw prices rise by around 25%, but sales in large-scale retail trade contracted by only 8%, a sign of a less resilient market than one might think. Purchases are particularly declining among families with below-average incomes, while purchases by wealthier families have increased.
In this context, promotion takes on an increasingly crucial role, including within the National Olive Oil Plan, which is being examined in the coming days by the State-Regions Conference. And it is precisely on the merits of the PON that the the undersecretary of the Ministry of Agriculture, Patrizio La Pietra: Within the €300 million currently being discussed for the olive oil sector, we have included an initial €10 million specifically dedicated to promotion, with an additional €175 million over the next five years within the CMO framework to be channeled toward the plan's objectives. Furthermore, following the same promotional campaign launched for wine, we will also produce a commercial for olive oil. The important thing is that the actions implemented are geared toward achieving the objectives set out in the strategy shared with the Government and stakeholders, including production.
According to the data presented by the Deputy Director of the International Olive Council (IOC), after the disastrous 2023/24 olive oil campaign of 2,58 million tons and the record production of the 2024/25 vintage of 3,57 million tons, a balanced campaign of around 3,4 million tons is about to end. “Price dynamics are closely related to production - has explained Abderraouf Laajimi -These are not speculative phenomena: volatility is a structural feature of this market. But we must understand and emphasize the impact of climate change in making this variation more frequent and intense, and work to make production more stable internationally. When there are stocks from one year to the next and a recovery in production, we can have more stable prices and ensure long-term stability. To do this,” Laajimi concluded, “we must work together to make this sector more adaptable, through improved irrigation, climate-resilient varieties, and more sustainable practices.”
