Lights and shadows on olive oil production in Spain at the end of 2025. The initial estimates released by the Ministry of Agriculture, in collaboration with the AICA (Agency for Food Information and Control), depict a complex situation that lends itself to various interpretations, oscillating between slowing production and stable consumption.
Production slowed by bad weather
The most evident data concerns the volume of oil obtained in the month of December: 416.471 tons, scoring one 18% decrease compared to last year's 592.570 t. However, experts urge caution: the the decline would not be structural but meteorological. The constant rains have in fact work in the olive groves was paralyzed for about 12 days, inevitably delaying the harvest.
Despite this forced stop, the first days of January bring encouraging signs: yields have already increased by 1,3%, an increase that could correct the final balance of the season upwards.
Inventories and comparison with 2024
At the end of December 2025, the sector has stored about 716.400 tonsThe comparison with the previous year, however, remains difficult: in the same period in 2024, production had already reached a quota 893.000 t, showing a gap of -24%This gap is raising several questions among operators about whether the estimates forecast last October will be achieved.
Market and sales: it keeps pace with releases
On the sales front, the sector is showing unexpected resilience. Despite the numerous holidays in December, which saw many companies operating at a reduced rate, "departures" (product exits from the mills) maintained the volumes of previous months.
One final significant finding concerns packers, who have increased their reserves by approximately 25.000 tons. This strategic move suggests a more cautious and prudent approach for the coming months, while we wait to see how prices and actual product availability will stabilize on the market.
