According to the latest data on the balance of the olive oil market for the current 2024/25 campaign, corresponding to the month of January and presented by the European Commission, Average prices at origin of extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) in Italy last month were more than double those in Spain.
Extra virgin, virgin and lampante
In particular, extra virgin olive oil (maximum acidity of 0,8) was quoted on average in Spain a €440,2 per quintal, with a monthly decline of 10% and an annual decline of 2024% compared to January 51, while this same category in Italy It was quoted on average at €944,5 per quintal, with a slight increase of 1% in January and a decline of just 1% compared to the previous year. The Greece, for its part, recorded an average price of its extra virgin olive oil of €468,5 per quintal, with a monthly decrease of 6% and an annual decrease of 47%.
In Spain, virgin olive oil (maximum acidity of 2), was quoted at an average of €399 per quintal in January, 11% less than the average for December 2024 and also 52% less than in January last year. In Italy the price of this category was €644,8 per quintal, up 7% on a monthly basis and down 24% on a yearly basis, while in Greece it was €366,7 per quintal, down 11% on a monthly basis and 50% on an annual basis.
Finally, in the category of'lampante olive oil intended for refining (acidity higher than 2), the average price at origin in Spain it was €359,9 per quintal in January, with a 13% drop in the month and 56% compared to January 2024; In Italy the average price was €324,3 per quintal, down 10% compared to December and 54% compared to the previous year, while in Greece the price was lower, settling on average at €295 per quintal, down 1% from the previous month and 46% from the same month of the previous year.
In Tunisia, one of the main third producing countries, the average price in the third week of January was €378 per quintal for extra virgin olive oil, 52% less than the previous year, and €295 per quintal for virgin olive oil, 56,8% less than then.
Olive oil production
The latest statistical forecast from the European Commission for world olive oil production was 3,39 million tons, of which almost 1,99 million, 58,7% of the total, would come from producing countries in the European Union and the remaining 41,3%, just over 1,4 million, from third countries.
Of the estimated volume in the EU, there remain 1,29 million tons for Spain, with an increase of 51% compared to the 2023/24 campaign; 250 thousand tons (+43%) for Greece, which again surpasses Italy, where it is expected to obtain only 240 thousand tons (-27%), while the Portugal would get around 195 thousand (+21%) and other EU countries (France, Croatia, Slovenia, Cyprus, etc.) another 14 thousand.
Among the Third producing countries, the first would still be the Turkey, with an estimate of 450.000 tonnes (+109%), more than doubled its production compared to the previous campaign, followed by Tunisia, with 340.000 tonnes (+53%), also a significant increase. Syria would settle down to 105.000 tonnes (+31%), surpassing the Morocco in third place, which would remain with only 90 thousand tons (-15%), after a decline due to drought and alternating production.
Other producing countries (United States, Argentina, Chile, Australia, Jordan, Israel, Palestine, etc.) would get more 416 thousand tons, with a slight increase of 1% compared to the previous campaign.
consumption
The European Commission predicts, in a very preliminary estimate, that world consumption of olive oil will approach 3 million tons, with an increase of 2,91% and 84.000 tonnes compared to the sharp decline (due to lower supply and higher prices) in the previous campaign. In 2019/20 (3.2 million tonnes), 2020/21 (3,21 million) and 2021/22 (3.19 million) the threshold of 3 million was exceeded, and it is likely that it will also be exceeded in the current one, despite the caution of the data coming from Brussels.
THEthis increase in consumption would concern the EU entirely, where it would grow by almost 6,7% and 83.000 tonnes compared to the previous campaign, while in non-EU countries it would remain unchanged at around 1,64 million tonnes, a figure that the EC has not changed since 2019/20, when it estimated it at almost 1,77 million, but which would also predictably be higher.
The stocks
Finally, the European Commission foresees that olive oil stocks will increase by the end of 2024/25 (30 September 2025) to 460 thousand tons, after falling to a low of 297 at the end of the previous campaign. Despite the recovery, it would still remain well below the average (534.200 tonnes) of the last five campaigns.
(taken from www.Qcom.es)
