Throughout Italy, from the North to the islands, the last three days of January, the so-called “Days of the Blackbird”For centuries, they have symbolized the height of winter's cold. It's a tradition rooted in the legends of blackbirds taking refuge in chimneys and the epic tales of the duel between January and February. Today, however, it also offers a useful agronomic observation point for assessing the olive tree's resilience to climate stress.
A mild but critical January 2026
National climate analysis shows an overall less rigid framework than tradition.
In Northern Italy the minimum temperatures in the olive groves dropped, in some areas, even to -10°C and maximum temperatures during the day were close to 10°C. In Center of Italy the minimum temperatures were between 0°C and 3°C, with maximum temperatures between 8°C and 12°C; while in South and in the Islands temperatures fluctuated between 4°C and 7°C in minimum temperatures and between 12°C and 16°C in maximum temperatures.
La soil temperature at –30 cm, a key indicator for olive tree physiology, remained stable: 5–7°C in the North, 7–9°C in Central Italy, 9–12°C in the South and the Islands. This "blackbird period," therefore, was not very intense, reducing the risk of damage to the olive trees but not eliminating other critical issues.
Precipitation was unevenly distributed: sparse in the first half of the month and more intense in the second. Significant rainfall occurred in the North between January 23rd and 30th, with peaks exceeding 30 mm; in Central Italy, accumulations were moderate but frequent; in the South and the Islands, heavy rains alternated with brief periods of wind, typical of Mediterranean weather systems.
The freezing rain
The combination of cold air at ground level, warmer layers at altitude, and liquid precipitation has created conditions suitable for freezing rain in some areas of the country, especially in the North. This increasingly frequent phenomenon can cause ice formation on leaves and twigs, causing sudden thermal shock, frost burn, leaf necrosis and cracks on the year's branches.
The damage is often subtle, becoming visible only after the ice has melted and can compromise future production, as it affects the youngest, most fruitful tissues.
Wind and phytosanitary vulnerability
The disturbed phase at the end of the month was accompanied by gusts of wind which, in several regions, have caused leaf abrasions and cortical micro-lesions.
These wounds represent a privileged entry point for opportunistic pathogens, in particular Pseudomonas savastanoi, agent of the revery olive treeThere are no direct interventions to "disinfect" wind damage: prevention remains the most effective strategy, through balanced canopy management, nutrition that promotes lignification, and careful monitoring after extreme events.
Between tradition and agronomy
The Days of the Blackbird, although no longer the coldest days in a scientific sense, maintain an operational value, they represent one seasonal watershed, a time when the olive grower can evaluate the progress of the winter and estimate the risk of a return of cold weather.
A proverb says: “January engenders, February tenderizes”, remembering that, after the peak of the cold, the plant slowly begins to reactivate, becoming more sensitive to thermal and mechanical stress.
Conclusions
January 2026 confirms a now consolidated trend: less harsh but more unstable winters, characterized by alternating mild periods, heavy rainfall and extreme phenomena such as freezing rain and strong winds.
For Italian olive growing, from the North to the islands, this means adopting adaptive agronomic strategies, carefully monitoring canopies after climatic events, and considering tradition not as an absolute given, but as a useful cultural reference to be integrated with technical data analysis.
