by Francesca Gambin and Roberta Ruggeri
Aipo Economic Office
The 2025 half-yearly report for the Italian olive oil sector paints a complex and far from unambiguous picture.
If on the one hand a growing dependence on imported oil, on the other hand, it is confirmed ability of the Italian system to valorize its product and its expertise in international markets. It is a story that certainly denotes fragility, But also ability to operate and commercial vision.
Inventories and imports: an increasingly significant foreign presence
According to the official data of the Telematic Oil Registers, as of June 30, 2025 – as reported by OlivoNews – the total oil stocks in Italy amounted to 176.529 tons, but only the 42,1% are of national origin. The rest 57,9% comes mainly from Spain, Greece, Tunisia, Türkiye and Algeria. This means that over half of the oil present in Italian warehouses comes from abroad, with clear impacts on the entire supply chain.
A contribution to determining this picture was also made by sharp drop in domestic production, down 25% compared to 2024 due to extreme weather conditions, irregular plant diseases, and weaknesses, especially in production. In this context, imports have proven to be a necessary mechanism to avoid shortages and maintain balance in the system.
Domestic consumption: encouraging signs
Despite the difficulties, the domestic market is showing signs of vitality. After years of progressive erosion of consumption, I went down from approximately 8,5 kg per capita in 2018 up to 7,7 in 2023, 2024 saw a first slight recovery, confirmed in the first half of 2025, when consumption is rose to about 8,2 kg per person.
This partial recovery is attributable to consumers' growing attention to the quality and origin of the oil, but also to the efforts of distributors and producers to communicate the nutritional and cultural value of the product.
Educational campaigns, local storytelling, and the spread of more transparent packaging They have helped restore confidence and interest in olive oil, even in its refined version (00 oil), widely used in the industrial sector.
Export: artisanal expertise at the service of the world
At the same time, Italy continues to stand out as a leading player in international markets. In the first seven months of 2025, extra virgin olive oil exports exceeded 1,9 billion eurosa increase of 61% compared to the same period of the previous year. United States, Germany, Switzerland, South Korea, and Japan remain the main reference markets.
Success is not only measured in absolute value, the strength of the Italian system is its artisanal ability to transform even imported oils into high value-added products, through expert blending, refined processes and advanced preservation techniques.
Italy is appreciated not only for its "native" olive oil, but also for its ability to create flavor, balance, and sensory identity—elements recognized and rewarded by consumers around the world. From this perspective, imports are not just a necessity, but can become a resource that allows the supply chain to remain operational even in challenging years and to respond flexibly to increasingly global demand.
Tariffs and geopolitical challenges: a variable to keep an eye on
On the regulatory front, there are currently no penalizing tariffs on Italian exports to major non-EU markets. With US tariffs on olive oil rising from 10% to 15%, there are no particular problems.
Geopolitical tensions, especially between the European Union and some Mediterranean countries, such as Türkiye and Tunisia, represent a variable to monitor.
At the same time, the competition with other large Mediterranean producers, first and foremost Spain, it is not just a matter of price, but increasingly of the ability to present the product in a sustainable, territorial and certified way.
A balance to be managed, not feared
The picture of the Italian olive oil market in July 2025 is not negative, but complex. growing dependence on foreign countries does not equate to a loss of identity, if managed with intelligence and vision. Italy continues to represent a benchmark in the global olive oil landscape, not only for the product itself, but for its ability to enhance, transform, and position it.
The challenge for the next few years will be relaunch national production Through investments in olive groves, agronomic innovation, and technical training. Only in this way will it be possible to consolidate Italy's role not only as a major exporter, but also as a strong, stable, and competitive producer.
The value of Italian oil, after all, is not measured only in euros per kilo but also in its ability to endure, evolve, and express an identity built on culture, territory, and, above all, "know-how."
