In an interview with the Greek news newspaper olivenews.gr economist Dimitra Aliefs, an expert in international olive oil trade, has offered an optimistic forecast for olive oil production in the new 2025/26 season. Although it is still early – the main olive-growing countries are in bloom and only in some regions are the first fruits already starting to appear – the analysis is based on both data from the previous campaign and on the weather conditions of these months.
Whether these are more or less risky predictions is difficult to say. In any case, theinterviewed by Director Vassilis Zampounis, the economist thus answered questions about the future of the sector. "IThe message is one of momentum. Olive trees are well rested, winter weather conditions in key regions have been favorable, and with May coming to a close – reducing the threat of heatwaves or natural disasters – we are seeing strong signs of a bumper harvest. All indications are that global olive oil production will exceed 4 million tonnes.
What is particularly striking is the alignment among most Mediterranean producers. With the notable exception of Türkiye, almost all major producing countries are expected to reach high yield levels.”
And here is how, according to the Greek economist, the numbers look in thousands of tons, leaving a range between minimum and maximum:
Spain: 1.650 – 1.850 thousand tons;
Tunis: 440 – 460 thousand tons
Italy 340 – 360 thousand tons
Greece: 340 – 360 thousand tons
Turkey: 240 – 280 thousand tons
Portugal: 190 – 210 thousand tons
Morocco: 120 – 130 thousand tons
Syria: 110 – 130 thousand tons
Others (*): 650 – 750 thousand
(*) Included Algeria (60 – 70), Libya (50) Egypt (30) Saudi Arabia (20) and others.
Global total: 4.080 – 4.530 thousand tons
Analyzing the previous campaign, these estimates relaunch the full recovery of Spain, the world locomotive, and further raise the production levels of Tunisia which thus climbs to second place. After the splendid campaign of last year, Turkey returns to normal values, while Greece is recovering, hot on Italy's heels. Our country would recover over 100 thousand tons compared to the poor production of 2024.
Regarding prices, the economist is tight-lipped: “It is still too early to give precise figures. But it is clear that all the parties involved in the olive oil supply chain must start a serious dialogue. And I stress serious. These discussions must go beyond national borders, taking into account the global dynamics of production, consumption and prices”.
